Data & Definitions

Introduction: Net Domestic Migration

There have been substantial differences in migration (net domestic migration) within the United States for decades. These differences materially impact population and economic growth data. For example, net domestic migration data in Texas since 2000 has materially recued California’s population lead over Texas from 13 million to 8 million in 2024. Similarly, Florida, which trailed New York by 3 million in 2000 now leads that state by 3.5 million.

There are two sources of authoritative net domestic migration — the Internal Revenue Service and the US Census Bureau. Net domestic migration is an important indicator of a state’s attractiveness. It is a factor that should be monitored by states.

Unleash Prosperity is inaugurating the “Vote with your feet” project, to materially improve access to these important data sources.

IRS Net Domestic Migration Estimates

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) actually matches individual federal income tax returns, comparing addresses from the last year to the present year to estimate movement between the nation’s counties (and county equivalents) for each year.

This painstaking process produces an accurate net domestic migration estimates among a majority of tax returns. However, not everyone is required to file federal income taxes, and those who do not file are not counted in the IRS migration data.

The current IRS data is referred to as 2021-2022 and includes data from personal income tax filings covering calendar year 2021. The next annual report (September 2025) will cover tax forms for income in 2022.

The great advantage of the IRS data is that it provides data on movement between the states. Data is provided for both in-migration and out-migration, not just a single net migration number for the entire state, as is provided by the Census Bureau estimates (below). Thus, one can learn that during 2021, the state of Washington lost 1,170 net domestic migrants to Oklahoma, while 2,325 net domestic migrants left Florida for Alabama.

This year’s Vote with your feet edition provides data for up to the last 10 years for net domestic migration between the states and the District of Columbia as well as domestic migration related personal income changes.

Census Bureau Population Estimates

The second source is the Census Bureau’s annual population estimates. The Census Bureau reports only net migration. So it is possible to find out the total net domestic migration of a state, such as Florida, but not any data with respect to how many people moved to or from any other state. This is a single number, which is calculated by the total in-migrants minus the total out-migrants.

The Census Bureau estimates are released for the states in late December. The next publication in December 2025 will include net migration between July 1, 2024 to June 20, 2025 and are referred to as the 2025 data.

The great advantage of the Census Bureau estimates is that they are much newer than the IRS data. For example, at the end of the year (December 2025) , the Census Bureau estimates will be for the year ended June 2025, while the IRS estimates will be for calendar year 2022.

This year’s Vote With Your Feet edition includes Census Bureau net domestic migration numbers for 2021 to 2024 by states and the District of Columbia.